The renewed BJP-AIADMK alliance in Tamil Nadu – announced Friday evening by Home Minister Amit Shah, with ex-Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami by his side – gives the former a premade political platform, i.e., access to an established cadre and voter base before next year’s state election.
How effective that platform will be – given the margin of victory the ruling DMK-Congress alliance enjoyed in the 2021 Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha elections – is not clear, particularly since the BJP has historically struggled in a state that rejects its muscular brand of nationalism.
But, and perhaps more crucially, it also gives the BJP a boost in the Rajya Sabha, because it can now count on the AIADMK’s four MPs and this gives it a mathematical edge in the Upper House and, by extension, a stranglehold on Parliament.
The BJP-led coalition already enjoys a brute majority in the Lok Sabha and is now set to control the Rajya Sabha too, meaning the passage of bills – particularly controversial ones like the ‘one nation, one election’ bill expected in the next Parliament session – should be much easier.
In fact, sources have told NDTV pushing the ‘one nation, one election’ bill – a flagship initiative of PM Modi – through Parliament is the priority, after changes to the Waqf laws were cleared.
BJP’s Rajya Sabha Majority
The Rajya Sabha has a total strength of 245, of which nine seats are vacant. This means the effective strength is only 236 and the majority mark is 119, which the BJP can now clear.
With the addition of four current AIADMK MPs – CV Shanmugam, M Thambidurai, N Chandrasegharan, and R Dharmar – the BJP-led ruling alliance will have 123 MPs on its side.
That could go to 124 because the term of Anbumani Ramadoss of the PMK, a regional Tamil party, ends in July. And, based on the current make-up of the Assembly, the AIADMK should be able to pick up this seat too, taking its tally in the Rajya Sabha to five.
Meanwhile, the BJP can also count on support from seven other MPs – six nominated and one independent. The party-led NDA’s effective strength, therefore, is 131.
Numbers Could Go Up More?
There is one seat vacant from Andhra Pradesh, which was held by ex-Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress Party. That will now go to the ruling Telugu Desam Party of Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu, who is a key ally, and therefore to the NDA’s side of the House.
Similarly, there are four seats vacant for nominated MPs and the picks for these seats will almost certainly side with the BJP. And then there are four vacant from Jammu and Kashmir.
Elections for those seats have been delayed but, when held, the BJP will expect to pick up at least one seat given 29 MLAs in the 90-seat House. Mr Modi’s party may even get two.
All this means the BJP could count on as many as 141 seats in the 245-member House and, for the first time since 2014, the party-led alliance could enjoy a clear majority in the Upper House.
For added emphasis the BJP can also count on issue-based votes from non-aligned parties.
For example, to clear the Waqf (Amendment) Bill through the Rajya Sabha, the BJP could count on individual votes from Odisha’s BJD and the YSR Congress Party, each of which has seven MPs and neither of which issued a whip directing its members to vote in a particular manner.
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