Elon Musk recently voiced his concerns about the global population decline, calling it one of the world’s most pressing challenges. Sharing a post on X (formerly Twitter), Musk highlighted a graph originally posted by the Tesla Owners Silicon Valley account. The graph illustrated projected population changes between 2018 and 2100 for key nations, including Nigeria, the United States, Indonesia, and Pakistan, underscoring the looming demographic shifts.
The account posted: “Population collapse is humanity’s greatest threat… Elon Musk.”
Musk retweeted the statement and wrote: “Yes.”
Yes https://t.co/iiacYs29ju
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 7, 2025
For years, experts have recognised that the world is heading toward population decline, though there is an ongoing debate about the speed of this trend and which countries will be most impacted. Key factors contributing to population decline include declining fertility rates, emigration, and ageing populations. In many nations, the average number of children per woman is below 2.1-the threshold required to sustain a stable population.
In 2023, the average number of children per woman in England and Wales dropped to 1.44, the lowest ever recorded, according to the Office for National Statistics. Globally, fertility rates have declined significantly, falling from an average of 5.3 children per woman in 1963 to less than half that figure today, the Daily Express reported.
A graph first published in 2020 illustrates that while both India and China had populations of around 1.5 billion in 2018, their trajectories are expected to diverge sharply. By 2100, India’s population is projected to decline to just under 1.1 billion, a reduction of about 400 million. China’s population, however, is expected to fall dramatically to 731.9 million-a staggering drop of 731 million. This would position Nigeria, with a projected population of 790.1 million, as the world’s second most populous country by the end of the century.
The 2020 report by researchers at the University of Washington suggested that population decline, particularly in China and India, might occur more rapidly than previously anticipated.
Despite fertility rates below replacement levels, the United States is projected to remain the fourth-largest nation in 2100, with population stability supported by positive net migration. Similarly, Canada and Australia are expected to maintain semi-stable populations through migration.
By 2100, current growth nations such as Indonesia and Pakistan are predicted to experience slight population declines, while the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia are expected to surpass them in population size around the turn of the century.
Elon Musk has frequently voiced concerns about global population decline, warning that “population collapse is coming.”