Exit polls for the 2025 Delhi election have given the Bharatiya Janata Party a clear advantage (and predicted more woe for the Congress, which is expected to be routed again) when votes are counted Saturday. The hopes of the ruling Aam Aadmi Party, aiming for a third term, are set to be dashed.
There are 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly. The majority mark, therefore, is set at 36.
Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong.
NDTV’s Poll of Exit Polls gives the BJP 41 seats, the AAP 28, and the Congress just one seat, which is a welcome change after getting zero in each of the past two polls. Should this be the result, it will be the first time in two decades that the BJP will control the Delhi government.
Big Win For BJP?
Breaking it down, seven exit polls – DV Research, Chanakaya Strategies, JVC, Poll Diary, P-Marq, People’s Insight, and People’s Pulse – all expect Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP to win.
The latter, in fact, expects a dominant victory and has given the saffron party between 51 and 60 of Delhi’s 70 Assembly seats. Poll Diary and People’s Insight each expects over 40 for the BJP.
JVC, Chanakya Strategies, and P-Marq expect the BJP to win at least 39 seats each, while DV Research believes it will just about hit the magic mark.
Each gives the BJP a maximum of over 40 seats, except for Poll Diary (50) and Peoples’ Pulse (60).
Hope For AAP?
There are two standouts, though.
The WeePreside exit poll believes Arvind Kejriwal’s party will score yet another outsized victory by sweeping between 46 and 52 seats.
And the Mind Brink poll believes the AAP will get between 44 and 49 seats.
Otherwise the AAP – which came into this election battling corruption charges against Mr Kejriwal – is not expected to win more than 34 seats (DV Research) and, potentially, as few as 10 (according to People’s Pulse). This is a massive defeat after winning 67 in 2015 and 62 in 2020.
READ | ‘AAP-da’ For Arvind Kejriwal? Delhi Exit Polls Predict Rout
The AAP, however, has firmly rejected the exit poll data, pointing out they had been similarly written off before each of their wins in 2015 and 2020. AAP leader Sushil Gupta told news agency ANI, “This is our fourth election… every time exit polls did not show AAP (winning, but) Arvind Kejriwal has worked for the people of Delhi. We will see the results in favour of AAP and we will form the government…”
READ | Exit Polls Predict BJP’s Delhi Return. What Did They See In 2020?
The Matrize exit poll, meanwhile, seems to sit on the fence; it sees Mr Kejriwal’s party winning between 32 and 37 seats, and the BJP between 35 and 40, indicating a hung House.
Congress’ Chaos Continues
Notable among all of these is the absence of the Congress.
The party is not expected to win more than three seats (Chanakya Strategies) and the People’s Pulse, in fact, expects the stuttering Gandhi family-led party to pick up zero seats, again.
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