The BJP has been tipped to win – by a margin of six – the 2025 Delhi Assembly election, according to NDTV’s updated poll of exit polls. Fresh data, from Today’s Chanakya, Axis My India, CNX, released Thursday evening predicts a return to power in the national capital, for the first time since 1998.
The Axis My India poll expects Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party to win between 45 and 55 of Delhi’s 70 seats, while CNX is even more gung-ho, giving the BJP between 49 and 61 seats.
The former gives the ruling AAP 15 to 25 seats, the latter 10-19.
And Today’s Chanakya gives the BJP 51 seats to the AAP’s 19.
Health warning: Exit polls are often wrong.
Neither of the three has any expectation from the Congress, giving it a solitary (maybe) seat, which emphasises the point on which all 12 exit polls agree – that the party continues to flop in Delhi.
The updated poll of exit polls now gives the BJP 42 of 70 seats – six more than required to form the government. Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP, battling for what would be an impressive third consecutive triumph in Delhi, is expected to get only 27 – a big fall from the 67 it won in 2015 and 62 in 2020.
READ | ‘AAP-da’ For Arvind Kejriwal? Delhi Exit Polls Predict Rout
The Congress? Just one seat. A prediction which, if it holds true, will again spotlight the party’s apparent inability to work with fellow opposition parties. The Congress and the AAP were expected, in the run-up to the Delhi polls, to join forces (as they have on the national stage) to defeat the BJP.
But that alliance never came to pass, mirroring the events that preceded last year’s Haryana election, in which the Congress’ state leaders refused to countenance any deal with the AAP.
The Congress was eventually thumped in Haryana too.
Meanwhile, back to Delhi and the 10 exit polls announced last night.
Seven of those 10 also predicted a big win for the BJP. People’s Pulse, Poll Diary, and People’s Insights were the most optimistic, predicting a low return of 40 and a high of 60 between them.
READ | BJP Comeback In Delhi After 2 Decades, AAP Out, Say Exit Polls
Chanakya Strategies, DV Research, JVC, and P-Marq also predicted BJP wins.
The AAP, however, has firmly rejected the exit poll data, pointing out they had been similarly written off before each of their wins in 2015 and 2020. AAP leader Sushil Gupta told news agency ANI, “This is our fourth election… every time exit polls did not show AAP (winning, but) Arvind Kejriwal has worked for the people of Delhi. We will see the results in favour of AAP and we will form the government…”
READ | Exit Polls Predict BJP’s Delhi Return. What Did They See In 2020?
Batting for the AAP were WeePreside and Mind Brink, which gave Mr Kejriwal between 46 and 52, and 44 and 49 seats, respectively. And Matrize is on the fence – BJP 35-40 and AAP 32-37.
Delhi’s 70 seats voted in a single phase on Wednesday. The votes will be counted on Saturday.
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